gordon.dewis.ca - Random musings from Gordon


Archive for the ‘Weather’

Brace yourself: This is going to suck

January 10, 2017 @ 13:10 By: gordon Category: Weather

I just looked at the radar…

And the aviation forecast:

TAF CYOW 101738Z 1018/1118 12010KT P6SM -SN OVC040 TEMPO 1018/1019 2SM -SN OVC030
FM101900 13012G22KT 3SM -SN OVC030 TEMPO 1019/1020 1SM -SN VV007
PROB40 1019/1020 3/4SM -SN
FM102000 13012G22KT 1/2SM SN VV005 TEMPO 1020/1022 1SM -SN
PROB30 1022/1103 1/4SM +SN VV003
FM110300 14018G28KT 3/4SM -SN BLSN VV007 TEMPO 1103/1107 2SM -SNPL OVC012
PROB30 1104/1107 3SM -FZRA BR OVC015
FM110700 17020G30KT 3SM -SNRA OVC012
FM111100 22020G35KT P6SM BKN030
FM111400 23015G25KT P6SM FEW030

The likelihood that this is going to suck is very high.

And so it begins…

October 27, 2016 @ 00:24 By: gordon Category: Weather

Well, it looks like the non-snow infested weather is probably coming to an end on Thursday…

TAF CYOW 270238Z 2703/2724 VRB03KT P6SM SCT040
FM271100 07010KT P6SM FEW025 BKN200
FM271500 08012G22KT P6SM FEW012 OVC120
FM271800 09015G25KT P6SM -RA FEW020 OVC060
FM272000 09015G25KT 21/2SM -SNRA BR BKN015 OVC030
FM272300 08015G25KT 11/2SM -SNRA BR BKN008 OVC012

Basically, the aviation forecast is suggesting that a mix of light rain and snow, aka sleet, will start around 4pm, which should make the evening commute magical.

At least it’s not quite as icky as what was being called for 8 years ago.

I really enjoyed the warm weather that we had up until a week or so ago.

An afternoon of geocaching and unexpectedly chasing a storm

August 28, 2016 @ 23:32 By: gordon Category: Geocaching, Out and about, Weather

The sky at the Experimental FarmAfter editing photos for most of the morning, I decided to head out and do a little geocaching. My first find was a puzzle cache in the Experimental Farm that I had solved a while ago but hadn’t gotten around to finding. While there, I heard rumblings of thunder in the clouds to the north and the rain started just as I made it back to the car. (more…)

Dragonboating this evening could be exciting

July 13, 2016 @ 17:22 By: gordon Category: Weather

Lots of exciting weather this afternoon and into the evening:

TAF CYOW 132038Z 1321/1418 20012G22KT P6SM FEW050 BKN220 TEMPO
1321/1322 VRB15G25KT 2SM +TSRA BKN060CB PROB30 1322/1324
FM140000 21010KT P6SM FEW100
FM140900 18008KT P6SM BKN050 BKN200
FM141200 20010KT P6SM -SHRA SCT020 BKN050
FM141500 21012G22KT 5SM -SHRA BR BKN020 PROB30 1415/1418

In a nutshell this evening from now’ish until about 8pm, heavy thunderstorms with big gusty winds. And then tomorrow from about 8am it looks like we’re in for more wind and rain, with possibly some thunderstorms over the lunch hour.

Seriously? Snow in the forecast? Why?

April 25, 2016 @ 15:31 By: gordon Category: General, Weather

Have we done something wrong? I just took a look at the aviation forecast for Ottawa and am a bit unimpressed as result:

TAF CYOW 251738Z 2518/2618 30007KT P6SM BKN220 
 FM260000 VRB03KT P6SM BKN160 
 FM260600 05010KT P6SM OVC090 
 FM261100 07012KT 3SM -SN OVC060 
 FM261500 06012KT P6SM BKN120 

As you can see in the line I’ve highlighted in red, there’s light snow forecast between 7AM (1100Z) and 1PM (1500Z).

If this actually happens, the morning commute will be insane as everyone has forgotten how to drive in the snow by now. Some of my coworkers have had their snow tires removed, too.

I know that the snow won’t hang around, but I really really really don’t want any more snow. (Ever.)

Gordon’s Rule for TAFs

March 01, 2016 @ 13:41 By: gordon Category: Weather

Terminal area forecasts (TAFs) are aviation weather forecasts. They are very precise and typically cover the next 24 to 36 hours from the time they’re issued. Each period within the TAF provides information on the winds, clouds and precipitation expected to occur. There are also optional sections that may appear for temporarily occurring weather (less than an hour) and for weather than may occur (30% and 40% probability). The latter is usually only for “bad” weather that could impact flight safety.

Gordon’s Rule for TAFs is simple: The longer the forecast, the more unsettled (aka “crappy” (a highly technical term)) the weather is going to be.

Here’s the TAF for Ottawa that was issued over the lunch hour:

TAF CYOW 011738Z 0118/0218 26005KT P6SM BKN120 OVC220 
     FM012000 05005KT P6SM -SN OVC070 
      TEMPO 0120/0122 4SM -SN 
     FM012200 06010KT 2SM -SN VV015 
      TEMPO 0122/0124 4SM -SN OVC050 
     FM020000 06012KT 11/2SM -SN VV012 
      TEMPO 0200/0202 3/4SM -SN VV008 
     FM020200 06015G25KT 1/2SM SN BLSN VV005 
     FM020500 06020G30KT 1/4SM +SN BLSN VV002 
      BECMG 0208/0210 04015G25KT 
     FM021100 35015G25KT 3/4SM -SN BLSN VV008 
     FM021300 31018G28KT 2SM -SN BLSN OVC025 
     FM021700 29018G28KT 5SM BLSN BKN030 
      RMK NXT FCST BY 012100Z


No redeeming features

February 23, 2016 @ 22:21 By: gordon Category: Weather

I can see no redeeming features in the forecast for the next day or so:

TAF CYOW 240238Z 2403/2424 05005KT P6SM OVC040 TEMPO 2406/2408 P6SM -SN BKN020 OVC040
FM240800 03005KT P6SM -SN FEW010 BKN020 OVC040 TEMPO 2408/2410 P6SM NSW BKN025 OVC040
FM241000 02005KT P6SM -SN SCT008 OVC020 TEMPO 2410/2414 3SM -SN BKN008 OVC020 PROB30 2410/2414 2SM -SN -FZDZ BR OVC004
FM241400 05010KT 11/2SM -SN OVC008 TEMPO 2414/2417 3SM -SN OVC020
FM241700 06015G25KT 1/2SM SN BLSN VV005
FM242000 07015G25KT 1SM -SNPL OVC006 PROB30 2420/2422 1/2SM SN BLSN
FM242300 07015G25KT 2SM -FZRA BR OVC006

Light snow. Light snow with light freezin drizzle. Moderate snow. Blowing snow. Snow pellets. Light freezing rain. And increasing amounts of wind as time marches on.

Nope, not a single redeeming feature.