So, 2014 is off to a bit of an extreme start weather-wise. We saw -27C weather that felt like -40 thanks to the wind last Thursday, and Winnipeg was colder than Mars.

This evening, it’s about -5C and forecast to go above 0C tomorrow. The incoming warm front has been causing the air pressure to plummet the last few hours (the blue line in the graph below) and we can expect to see freezing rain and probably rain overnight and in the morning. A few hours after that, we can expect to see the cold air return with over the course of a few hours, which should make the evening commute rather messy, with the evening forecast to be -24C and a windchill of -33.

If you look at the aviation forecast, you can see the wind change direction from being out of the northeast (050) at midnight local time (0500Z) to coming from the southwest (230) by 8 am (1300Z):

TAF CYOW 060242Z 0603/0624 07015G25KT 6SM -FZRA -SN FEW006 OVC025
TEMPO 0603/0605 2SM FZRA -PL BR BKN006 OVC030
FM060500 08015G25KT 2SM -FZRA BR OVC005 TEMPO 0605/0611 6SM -FZRA BR OVC010
FM061100 10008KT WS010/17032KT 1SM -RA BR OVC003 PROB40 0611/0612 1SM -FZRA BR
FM061300 23020G35KT 2SM -RA BR OVC008
FM061600 25020G35KT P6SM BKN025
RMK NXT FCST BY 060600Z=

And you can see that the wind from 1300Z on is going to be 20 knots gusting to 35 knots (37 km/h gusting to 65 km/h). Ick.

Dress warmly because weather like that can cause frostbite before you realize it.

I don’t think I’ve seen the sky over Ottawa being quite this impressive in a long time…

I just checked the Franktown radar and saw this:

The storm by Pembroke is moving roughly SSW and in 20 minutes moved about 40km.

It looks like this afternoon could be exciting with possibilities of thunderstorms and hail appearing in the forecast this afternoon and Environment Canada issued a severe thunderstorm watch at 10:55. Now, they’re only listed as 40% probabilities so it’s not certain that they’ll arrive but all the conditions look favourable: extreme heat and humdity. If they do arrive hopefully they’ll knock some of the humidity out of the air.

TAF CYOW 171438Z 1715/1812 26008KT P6SM FEW160
FM171700 25012KT P6SM SCT050 PROB40 1717/1719 VRB20G30KT 3/4SM +TSGRRA BR BKN020CB OVC050
FM172100 26009KT P6SM FEW020 SCT050 PROB40 1722/1724 VRB20G30KT 3/4SM +TSGRRA BR BKN020CB OVC050
FM180000 36015KT 6SM BR BKN020 TEMPO 1800/1804 P6SM NSW FEW020
FM180400 23003KT 3SM BR BKN040 PROB30 1804/1806 VRB15G25KT 11/2SM +TSRA BR BKN020CB
FM180600 28003KT 3SM BR BKN030
FM180900 23003KT 2SM BR SCT020
RMK NXT FCST BY 171800Z=

So, I get back from two weeks in the sun last Friday thinking “great! winter’s done!”.

Bzzt. Wrong.

Apparently, Mother Nature has seen fit to lob one more (highly unnecessary) winter storm in our direction.

TAF CYOW 111438Z 1115/1212 01012G22KT P6SM SCT140 OVC210
 FM111900 04012G22KT P6SM FEW040 OVC140
 FM120300 07012KT P6SM OVC100
 FM120500 08012G22KT 5SM -SN OVC060
 FM120700 08015G25KT 3/4SM -SN VV008
   PROB40 1210/1212 2SM -PL BR OVC012
 RMK NXT FCST BY 111800Z

Judging by the aviation forecast, the white crap snow is going to start falling around 1am, with a 40% chance of ice pellets in time for the morning commute. Lovely.

(more…)

I set up my GoPro this morning before heading out to work to take pictures at a 1 minute interval until the batteries died. Here’s what they look like after I stitched them together into a time lapse video: