It looks like tomorrow morning is going to be chaotic, and of course I have to be downtown in the Market really early:

TAF CYOW 180238Z 1803/1824 07008KT 2SM BR OVC003 TEMPO 1803/1805 6SM -FZDZ BR OVC006
FM180500 08008KT 2SM BR OVC003 TEMPO 1805/1808 6SM -DZ BR OVC006
FM180800 07012KT 1SM -SNRA BR OVC003 TEMPO 1808/1812 5SM -RA BR OVC006 PROB30 1808/1812 4SM -FZRA BR
FM181200 06012KT 1/2SM SN VV002
FM182000 34010KT 2SM -SN OVC012
RMK NXT FCST BY 180600Z=

Basically, it looks like there’s going to be freezing drizzle, snow showers and possibly freezing rain, all before 7am, and then snow carrying on then until tomorrow evening.

Driving to the Market at 7am is gonna be a blast.

There was a lot of ice fog this morning coating everything in hoar frost. I noticed this on a bolt on the bridge over the Transitway near Tunney’s Pasture…

Monday morning’s commute is going to have a high suck factor. The overnight forecast tonight is calling for snow, blowing snow, snow pellets, freezing rain, mist, ice pellets, all with fell winds from the east. The freezing rain and mist is forecast to switch to “just” rain and mist around 1pm Monday afternoon.

TAF CYOW 100245Z 1003/1024 07015KT P6SM OVC012
FM100400 08015G25KT 11/2SM -SN VV012 TEMPO 1004/1006 6SM -SN
FM100600 08015G25KT 1/2SM SN BLSN VV007 TEMPO 1006/1009 2SM -SNPL OVC010 PROB30 1006/1009 4SM -FZRA BR
FM100900 08015G25KT 4SM -FZRA -PL BR OVC005
FM101200 09012KT 2SM -FZRA BR OVC003
FM101800 10005KT 2SM -RA BR OVC003
FM102100 27015KT P6SM SCT004 BKN020 OVC100
FM102300 29015G25KT P6SM SCT025 BKN120
RMK NXT FCST BY 100600Z=

I’m glad I live close enough to work that I can walk to the office.

I just took a look out the window at work.

So, I’m at the Carleton Place Dragon Boat Festival today and the weather here is rather exciting. It’s been raining almost constantly since we arrived and there have been delays because of lightning. I’ve been watching the Franktown radar and it’s not encouraging.

The aviation forecast for Ottawa is equally bleak:
TAF CYOW 081141Z 0812/0912 14010KT P6SM SCT025 OVC100
TEMPO 0812/0817 4SM -SHRA BR OVC020 PROB40 0813/0815 VRB20G30KT 1SM TSRA BR BKN008 OVC020CB
FM081700 18012G22KT P6SM -SHRA OVC030
TEMPO 0817/0821 5SM -SHRA BR OVC015 PROB40 0817/0821 VRB30G50KT 1SM +TSRA BKN015 OVC030CB
FM082100 25012G22KT P6SM -SHRA OVC025
TEMPO 0821/0901 5SM -SHRA BR OVC020
FM090100 26015G25KT P6SM OVC020
FM090400 28010G20KT P6SM OVC025
FM090900 28010KT P6SM BKN030
RMK NXT FCST BY 081500Z

The 30 gusting to 50 knots winds with heavy thunderstorms forecast for this afternoon will be truly delightful.

So, I just took a look at the Franktown radar and saw this:

My immediate response was: eww!

The aviation forecast is equally impressive:

TAF CYOW 041738Z 0418/0518 18005KT P6SM -SHRA BKN025 OVC040 TEMPO 0418/0420 2SM TSRA BR BKN008 OVC020CB
FM042000 18005KT P6SM -SHRA SCT015 OVC030 TEMPO 0420/0501 3SM -SHRA BR BKN015 OVC030 PROB30 0420/0501 2SM TSRA BR BKN008
OVC020CB
FM050100 05005KT 6SM BR FEW005 OVC070 PROB30 0501/0508 2SM BR BKN005
FM050800 35005KT P6SM FEW020 SCT100 TEMPO 0508/0513 BKN020
FM051700 VRB03KT P6SM BKN040
RMK NXT FCST BY 042100Z=

My rule of thumb concerning TAFs is the longer they are, the more the weather is going to suck.

In this case, the suck factor is fairly high because there’s rain and mist with periods of thunderstorms between now and about 9pm this evening. I’ve circled the likely culprits for the thunderstorms and put a little arrow indicating the rough direction that line was moving as it came in the radar’s coverage area. The interesting thing you can see if you watch the loop is that the big green mass is moving northeast while the line of thunderstorms is moving southeastish. It looks like they’re converging on Ottawa, so things could be a bit exciting this evening.